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With Hillary Clinton showing little chance of closing up shop (no matter how much some here think she is about too) and a free for all actually possible in Denver later this year, the question begs to be asked, who is the heir to the Democratic Thrown after 2008?
Since November of 2004, when John Kerry's hopes for the Presidency were drowned out in Ketchup and Al Gore was suddenly flush with his new found Messiah-ship in the environmental movement, it was quite clear it would be Hillary Clinton. Despite the identifiably rising star of the avenging angel of the American Black population (his biggest constituency by percentage), it was still a relatively safe bet that her majesty, Mrs. Clinton, would ascend the steps of the West Wing and take up residence if any Democrat were to do so in 2008.
Today we see a very different situation. One that will no doubt be studied into the far flung future as historians try to explain both why Hillary was brushed aside at this point in time and just how the upstart kid from Chicago or Hawaii (which ever you choose to tag him with) usurped her at this moment in time and, most importantly, just how it might be accomplished again during some future campaign cycle.
The question for us modern scholars here is more mundane. In the aftermath of this debacle being played out in the light of the of modern day politics, who is truly in a position to capture the front runner position in the future Democratic Parties?
Should McCain dispatch either Democratic nominee, what will be the consequences of the duel face of the party? If it splits in two, will there be a dominant branch? And if there is, will either one of these candidates hold onto that position for 4-8 years of Republican domination of Washington?
It would make Hillary nearly as old as McCain. Could she hold a commanding presence for that long? Or would another old Democratic War Horse mentioned above return to take the wheel in Al Gore? Of course the other side of the coin, still flailing in air searching for a piece of Earth with which to make contact, could Obama lead his very own wing of the Democratic Party Nuevo?
More to the point, how might it effect those sitting in Congress who have thrown their weight behind either one? Or would they hold together in theory just to keep their majorities in the House and Senate while fighting among themselves in the hopes of working out the wrinkles in time for another assault on the White House in 2012 or 2016?
We have few answers, and I doubt we will have any until after November. Even then, a repair may begin with the intention of "healing" the party by 2012. But under who's leadership? The actual nominee or under the new found authority of he or she who was left in the cold after Denver? If not them, who? The democratic Party as now configured has many people that could "step up" and try to gain control. Everyone from Harry Reid to Nancy Pelosi to Bill Richardson to Howard Dean could rightly claim to be the next Messiah of the Democratic Party in whatever configuration it still stands after all this.
It must be easy to get caught up in the here and now of the race, the battle for control and the battle for the nomination. However, there is much to consider for those on the left this election cycle, even more than who resides at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue come January 2009.
But what would I know; I'm just an Average American.
Splitting Heirs
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Posted By: Average American Posted on: May. 9, 2008 at 12:02 AM  26 Comments
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May. 9, 2008 at 06:48:32 AM
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| Listen, I know you are emotionally invested in this guy. I understand that when ones in love there is a disconnect from reality. I'm trying to give you some kind of heads up for what lies ahead for your parties machine as a whole. You can try to get me on the ether, that new car smell with Obama, but I'm a truck guy, it doesn't work. Your party is falling apart. The question you will be struggling with in about 6 months will be, WTF? Clinton's machine may have been caught off guard, but the recovery of it too is problematic for the Dems. You speak of the future but refuse to see beyond November. And just so you fully understand, this is going to happen whether one of your anointed make the White House or not. Your foundation is cracking, might as well bull doze the house. |
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May. 9, 2008 at 09:12:48 AM
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[This is a reply to comment by Average American on May. 9, 2008 at 06:48:32 AM]
Average American
May. 9, 2008 at 06:48:32 AM Listen, I know you are emotionally invested in this guy. I understand that when ones in love there is a disconnect from reality. I'm trying to give you some kind of heads up for what lies ahead for your parties machine as a whole. You can try to get... View this Comment Au contraire, BAA Boy! Just because Toad’s horse is outta momentum and money doesn’t mean the end of the political universe is imminent. In fact, the Clinton Machine’s in trouble because, like you, they’re still playing in the same old divisive political box. Get over it - Hillary is on her way out! As a half-baked-but-overcooked-partisan NeoCon, I don't know why you'd even care - unless you think your party's candidate is a great big loser or you've overexposed to Mr. Toad's bitterness! Look BAA, Obama has so redefined the political playing field thus far that Hillary’s staffers are talking about her withdrawal by June 15 and are even shopping book deals. So, unless you think Hillary’s lying when she says she’ll back - full force -the Democratic candidate in the general election campaign, I can't buy into your disaster scenario as the base point for speculating about the future of the Democratic Party. The Democrat’s glass isn’t half empty - it’s ¾ full! |
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May. 9, 2008 at 10:01:44 AM
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| Oh, BAA - Have you seen today's WaPo article on those AZ land deals your guy McCain helped pull off for his financial backers? "He certainly recognizes that there have been well-documented abuses of legislative land exchanges, but every land exchange bill introduced by Senator McCain has been written with the highest regard for the public interest." "McCain also has been critical of government's "revolving door," which allows former government officials to position themselves as influential lobbyists. Rogers said that McCain does not recall being lobbied by his former staff members on the land swap and that "no lobbyist influenced Senator McCain on this issue." Maaaan! What if McCain is indicted - not just by the Democratic forces for change but by the Justice Department - before the general election? How's that fit into your disaster projections? http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/08/AR2008050803494.html?hp |
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May. 9, 2008 at 11:36:13 AM
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| I think you meant to say Democratic Throne, not Democratic Thrown. Anyway, it's a bit premature to idly guess about future kings and king-makers, don't you think? A lot will hinge over whether Obama will win in November or not (he will), and if he runs for a second term. A lot can happen in four years. The one thing for sure is that Hillary has pretty much cooked her chances of running again. There are too many officials in the Party that are silently fuming that she would place her personal ambitions so far ahead of those of the Democratic Party, that she would throw core liberal principles under the bus in her pursuit of the gold. That has disenchanted too many of her liberal constituents as well. Remember, most of the Hillary supporters now did pick her as their number one choice (or even second or third for that matter). Why would they rally behind her above future contenders? Besides, as you said, she's not getting any younger. |
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May. 9, 2008 at 04:54:09 PM
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[This is a reply to comment by www.MoronInCharge.com on May. 9, 2008 at 11:36:13 AM]
www.MoronInCharge.com
May. 9, 2008 at 11:36:13 AM I think you meant to say Democratic Throne, not Democratic Thrown. Anyway, it's a bit premature to idly guess about future kings and king-makers, don't you think? A lot will hinge over whether Obama will win in November or not (he will),... View this Comment Thrown.......HEE. I particularly was fond of this one: "what will be the consequences of the duel face of the party?" This mixed metaphor was fun too: Or would another old Democratic War Horse mentioned above return to take the wheel in Al Gore? AA. The self pronounced "modern scholar"! |
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May. 9, 2008 at 04:57:54 PM
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| C'mon Mick, to BAA and some others here, politics is just like a box of chocolates - ya move the same old pieces around in the box and call it scholarly speculation or something like that. Democratic thrown? I liked Messiah-ship better - since when does the Messiah need a ship?
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May. 9, 2008 at 07:42:16 PM
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| Back to the article. Average, I throw your questions back to you. When McCain gets trounced, and Obama is the POTUS, who will be the leader of the Republican party? John Boehner? HA! |
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May. 9, 2008 at 10:34:20 PM
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[This is a reply to comment by indie616 on May. 9, 2008 at 07:42:16 PM]
indie616
May. 9, 2008 at 07:42:16 PM Back to the article. Average, I throw your questions back to you. When McCain gets trounced, and Obama is the POTUS, who will be the leader of the Republican party? John Boehner? ... View this Comment OK, spelling errors aside... (petty) I did screw up throne for thrown but I hyphenated Messiah-ship because spell check didn't like the word at all, but when you really think about thrown, it fits better anyway because that is what most want Hillary to do, throw herself under a bus. But anyway... June's denial of the facts that regardless of who wins the nomination it is not simply Hillary and Obama but the entire Democratic party that is at risk is sadly the common reaction. Even Terry McCullough (sp) said that he thought the party would regroup once a nominee was chosen. With that being said by him, I understand more why short sighted people like June are living in a dream world. To your question Indie, we are talking about a big difference between scenarios here. The supporters of those in the Dem party are fighting for the future of not just the country but the party as well. In the GOP right now we have a candidate and are not shredding ourselves from the inside out. But I will play along... If McCain wins the Presidency he would be the defacto leader of the party just as Bush is today. Now you question is who will become the "leader" of the GOP is McCain loses. Great question. The GOP actually has a number of obvious choices but many have individual problems being embraced by the party and more importantly, by the Conservatives within the party. Gingrich and Romney would be the front runners in my mind. But neither is perfect for the job. Romney has issues with moving on the issues and Gingrich has broken the 11th commandment several times regarding Bush. Jim Lehrner is a maybe but a long shot. Giuliani is a no for obvious reasons, he's not a conservative at all. There are a few dark horses who might well grow into the role between now and then (should it happen). Take Lamar Alexander from Tenn. today he unveiled a proposal creating a 5 year Manhattan Project for Alternative Energy, something I believe MIC has desired for some time. I will be honest with you here, most of the GOP Senate members are well, old. The GOP's future lies in the House and Governors. Take Paul Ryan, a young energetic guy with a future every bit as bright as Obama's. There's David Drier of California or even some other unknown at the moment who could well have the meteoric rise like that of Obama. The Dems also suffer from old dude syndrome. But there again it could be an upstart who grabs the spotlight. I make no predictions here about who, when or how, it was just a question. |
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May. 10, 2008 at 07:54:33 AM
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[This is a reply to comment by Average American on May. 9, 2008 at 10:34:20 PM]
Average American
May. 9, 2008 at 10:34:20 PM OK, spelling errors aside... (petty) I did screw up throne for thrown but I hyphenated Messiah-ship because spell check didn't like the word at all, but when you really think about thrown, it fits better anyway because that is what most want Hillary... View this Comment David Drier of California is GAY. Now, not that there is anything wrong with that, but somehow I don't see the Republicans selecting a homosexual as the face of their party. The RNC has told candidates that they are basically on their own this election cycle. Gingrich has warned that the Republicans are headed into the ditch this fall because they are so disorganized. PS. I wouldn't have mentioned your grammatical/spelling errors (I make plenty of my own) but you called yourself a scholar; you were begging for criticism. |
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BAA Boy -
As if your comments about a “brokered” Democratic convention weren’t enough, you continue ricocheting around inside the tired, old, out-dated political box of divisive partisanship that Barack Obama has vowed to change - and you don't recognize that he's already well on his way!
Last Tuesday night, Obama pointed at the crowd and said, “This race isn’t about Hillary Clinton, this race isn’t about me, it’s about you!” and he meant it! I know you see politics through a partisan prism so it may be impossible for you to believe, but this guy's the real McCoy - and he's doing what he said he'd do!
Already, Obama has set in place new pieces of the Democratic political infrastructure that give grassroots voters unheard of access to him and, once he’s in the White House, that access will obliterate forever the secretiveness and isolation that have marked the Bush years.
Why do you think Democratic voter registration and participation in the primaries is so high? That’s due largely due to mechanisms and programs that Obama’s put in place. Are you aware that votes cast for the Democratic candidates in Indiana last Tuesday were 30% higher than the votes Kerry received in the 2004 general election?
Where do you think all the moolah comes from for Obama’s campaign warchest, the rubber chicken circuit?
You say, “In the aftermath of this debacle being played out in the light of the of modern day politics, who is truly in a position to capture the front runner position in the future Democratic Parties?” Hell man, apparently when you read that Obama’s campaign has out-organized the Clinton Machine, you don’t have the foggiest notion what they’re writing about!
Before you look beyond the current “debacle”, you might look around to see what revolutionary pieces Obama has already put in play on his drive to take back Washington for the American people!
You could start by visiting www.mybarackobama.com.
The Republicans? The Bush years has them so disorganized they don’t need John McCain. Once he loses, the party will be in such shambles that GOP leadership will be problematic - will there be a party?
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