"This is the harvest time," said Lin Chong-pin, a former Taiwanese deputy defense minister and an expert on the Chinese military at the Foundation on International and Cross-Strait Studies in Taipei.  He was speaking of the Chinese Communist’s investment over the years in modernization of China’s military.

Short term, the goal of this program is to reverse the balance of power in the Taiwan straits and make it very dangerous for the United States to honor its commitment to defend an independent democratic Taiwan. 

The longer term thinly veiled secret goal of this determined effort is to displace the United States as THE power in the Pacific. 

Chinese Threat: phase 1 - Regional

A major thrust in this modernization effort is China's rapid development of cruise and other anti-ship missiles designed to pierce the electronic defenses of U.S. warships dispatched to the Taiwan Strait in case of conflict.

The Chinese navy has taken delivery of two Russian-built Sovremenny-class guided missile destroyers.  It has and additional six on order.  These are equipped with Sunburn missiles able to skim 4 1/2 feet above the ocean surface at Mach 2.5 to evade radar. It has also contracted with Russia to buy eight Kilo-class submarines that carry Club anti-ship missiles with a range of 145 miles.

"These systems will present significant challenges in the event of a U.S. naval force response to a Taiwan crisis," according to Vice Adm. Lowell E. Jacoby, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency.

"The main purpose of that is not to attack the United States," Lin said. "The main purpose is to throw a monkey wrench into the decision-making process in Washington, to make the Americans think, and think again, about intervening in Taiwan, and by then the Chinese have moved in."

Chinese Threat:Step 2 - Global

Strategically, China's military is also close to achieving an improved nuclear deterrent against the United States, according to foreign officials and specialists.

Its Type 094 nuclear missile submarine can carry 16 newly developed Julang-2 intercontinental ballistic missiles with a range of more than 5,000 miles and the ability to carry independently targeted warheads.  This gives China a survivable nuclear deterrent against the continental United States, according to "Modernizing China's Military," a study by David Shambaugh of George Washington University.

The Dongfeng-31 solid-fuel mobile ballistic missile, a three-stage, land-based equivalent of the Julang-2, has been deployed in recent years to augment the approximately 20 Dongfeng-5 liquid-fuel missiles already deployed.

Chinese Threat: Step 3 - Intercontinental

These missiles will be joined in the future by an 8,000-mile Dongfeng-41, putting the entire United States within range of land-based Chinese ICBMs as well.  Welcome back to the Cold War "duck and cover" tensions. 

The Economic Dynamics

China’s “announced” defense budget has risen by double digits in most recent years.  For 2005, it jumped 12.6 percent to hit nearly $30 billion.   China, with a $1.3 trillion economy and an annual growth rate of over 9 percent, is quite able to fund this military program.  And America is helping greatly through its copious borrowing from the Central Bank of China and record breaking trade deficit. 

The modernization effort is greatly expedited by the huge (4000 business front organizations whose sole purpose is to purloin U.S. military technology and secrets) espionage effort here in the United States. 

We are helping the Chinese to lavishly fund their military budget, which has the main purpose of displacing America as the world’s military superpower.   What’s wrong with this picture?