Russia, the former Cold War adversary of the United States and today alleged friend is finding it harder and harder to adapt to the Warm World. Their experiment in democracy has been cut short by a slow but constant realignment with the old Soviet ideas. Today Russia sits not as a great Super Power but an aged Super Fund Clean Up site. Although she still holds vast nuclear and non-nuclear armaments she is less likely to desire deployment based on the condition of her current military.

 

But their leader and former KGB head, Putin, is reverting to the old ways of governance in Russia, fear and intimidation. Recall just last year the plot to kill a man using nuclear isotopes and that the Russians can not account for all of the weapons grade uranium that has been removed and quite possibly sold by those who run the plants.

 

This has started to breed fear inside Russia that the current expansion of NATO is an attempt to place Russia in a geopolitical and geographical circle of distrust. The Duma (Russia’s lower House) this week urged NATO to reexamine the Conventional Forces in Europe (C.F.E.) treaty asking that it add provisions limiting weapons near Russia’s borders. With the additions of Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries being rumored lately, Russia is getting what some call a sinking feeling about NATO’s intentions. NATO has reassured the Russia government that these possible expansions have nothing to do with Russia herself but 75% of Russians believe the expansions and NATO could hold the largest threat to Russia since World War II.

 

In 2002 the creation of the NATO-Russian Council was formed to include Russia in peace keeping operations, human rights, and regional concerns and weapons proliferation policies. It was a change that was intended to calm Russian fears about the expansion of NATO. Russia seems to have been under the impression that any further expansion of NATO would not be eastward, closing on Russia itself.

 

In light of these changes Russia has said it will continue to work within the NATO-Russian Council and partner with NATO in many areas, however it has also started questioning things that should send a shiver through out spines, among them is Russia’s military deployment and reinforcement of border troops and weapons, using as a primary excuse the deployment of four old Belgium jet aircraft to patrol the borders of the former Baltic states.

 

Add to this the recent clamping down of the press in Russia and changes being made regarding everything from property ownership to freedom of expression and you can plainly se that the Soviet Union has started its comeback. Historically this area, while never being reformed in exactly the same shape, has broken apart and regrouped many times under many rulers. It would be naïve for us to think that it would not again group together as a concentrated center of power.

 

But unlike the other times in history it will this have at its disposal something which even the worst of the rabid Muslims do not have, nuclear weapons. These will again be in the hands of one government, perhaps two, or maybe many more as they are now. But there will be a primary power located probably in Moscow which will control the largest swath of lands and people and weapons.

 

As we wake daily to the saber rattling of Iran, North Korea and other small and mostly insignificant states, we must remember that it is possible that behind their finances, behind their apparent hatred of American and the West, there rides the Russian fear of in- superiority. A country complete with a long history of paranoia and an arsenal that can easily be reprogrammed to point at our major cites and industrial sectors…

 

Am I fear mongering, I don’t believe I am. What I am doing is reminding American that just 10 short years ago we went to bed wondering and now we should be waking up knowing that the repetitive cycle of change in Central Asia is driven more by paranoia than necessity.

 

Then being scared should, if not scare you, at the very least open your eyes to the possibility that a reconstituted Soviet style bloc can and will again be a formidable foe.

 

But what would I know; I’m just and Average American.