What’s with this inflation figure we keep getting from the Fed?

  

The inflation figure that is trotted out regularly masquerading as the rate of inflation you and I battle with daily is in fact something called ‘core inflation’, although that is a distinction that does not come with the regular pronouncements by our leadership in DC.  Core inflation is Real Inflation: ex Food and Oil.   

  

Of course you and I have to pay more for food and gasoline even though it is not included in this phantom feel-good figure.

   

The rationale for working with core inflation is that the price of food and oil is too volatile to be meaningfully reflected in the day-to-day rate of inflation that the Average American has to deal with at the grocery store and fuel pump.  That is a valid argument for the government statisticians, but not for me.

   

Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist at First Trust Advisors advises that we should get more accurate figures on real inflation.  He points out that the inflation rate for food and oil has risen steadily and substantially over the last five years.  It does not make sense in light of that to parse inflation and factor out those steadily increasing elements.

  

Volatility has been replaced now for most of the decade by steady inflation, and taking food and oil inflation out of the figure fed by the Fed to the public has become a smoke and mirror exercise.  So why does the government persist in this fantasy? 

  

Could be inertia.  There is plenty of that in DC.  And the rate of inflation for government inertia is real and ballooning. 

    

But my guess is that the powers-that-be are riding the inertia bull for all it is worth to put as happy a face on the deteriorating economy as possible.  To share the true inflation rate with the Average American, on top of the…

  1. credit crunch,
  2. stagnant wages,
  3. rising unemployment,
  4. falling value of domicile,
  5. home equity ATM drought,
  6. stock market big boy shenanigans
  7. and stock market micro-burst downdraft…

…and so on would probably finally get the tar pots boiling and find a lot of naked chickens sans their feathers in and around DC. 

   

These Wizards of Oz behind the beltline in DC are not eager to be tarred and feathered and to ride the rail out of town, so it may be quite some time before they come clean and state the true rate of REAL inflation from our government.

       

This economy for the last five years has been largely a product of clever management of smoke and mirrors.  That has come home to roost, and the American public is emerging from the fun house,  It is way past time for the government to get truthful with the American public.