We know three things about Hillary's chances of winning this nomination, thanks to Phaedrus:
  1. The popular vote is not on her side

  2. The number of pledged delegates (as of today) is not on her side

  3. The delegate math (for upcoming contests) is not on her side

Something is missing from this analysis: electability.

Two weeks ago, Obama was certainly riding high and it look as though Hillary Clinton was fighting a losing battle.  Then the controversy of Rev. Jeremiah Wright's sermons came to light and the equation changed.

As a part-time rabid liberal / neo-con, I have heard some radical rhetoric.  I've heard stories about 9/11 being an inside job and all of the stories about why we're in Iraq and why we invaded Afghanistan (to build a money-making pipeline).  I've heard about how George W. Bush hates black people and that's why New Orleans was left in chaos after Hurricane Katrina.

A steady diet of that kind of information piped primarily through Air America Radio has left me numb, or calloused.  Things don't offend me as easily as they probably would offend any other person.  So when I heard Rev. Wright's sermon I wasn't shocked.  I thought it was hilarious, not just because he made an ass out of himself but because he made an ass out of Barack Obama and poisoned his campaign beyond healing.

Barack Obama's campaign has been about bridging divides between the political parties and America's various races and changing politics as we know it.  His "Achilles' heel" has been his lack of substance regarding his past or who he is.  Part of his appeal was the mystery surrounding his candidacy.  Was he really the Messiah we've been waiting for?  An unknown number of Republicans and the majority of Independents believed he was and they voted for him and carried him to this point.

But now that mysterious aura has been filled, seemingly.  People who barely knew him and voted for him already must have been shocked.  Would Iowans have voted for him if they had known about his twenty-year membership to Rev. Wright's counsel?

Obama's problem is that he is an unknown and that is what has made him unelectable.  Hillary Cilnton's dirty laundry is out there, it has been flying high and stinking for over twelve years.  On the other hand, Obama's dirty laundry has been flying over the fence and hitting the streets piece by piece and it's not smelling all that appetizing either.

Having not heard of Obama until this election, I would presume that many voters really believed that he was a clean candidate with no skeletons of great consequence in his closet.  Week after week we are hearing more and more about his past and I would suspect that there are a lot of Democrats who would like their votes back.

The Tony Rezko real estate debacle was a fart compared to the Rev. Jeremiah Wright hurricane.  It has shaken Obama's campaign and it casts serious doubts on Obama's ability to achieve the goals he had set out for himself over a year ago.

First, he promised to change the tone and stay positive throughout the campaign, insisting that that was the only realistic way to entice new recruits from the Republican base.  But if we've learned one thing about Republicans in the last few years, it is that they hate any trace of America bashing.  Rev. Wright's sermons reeked of American hatred specifically in the phrase, "God damn America!"  Second, Obama played down the race card and received the wide appeal of white voters.  With Rev. Wright's racist comments, that support will surely dry up.

The final cry from Obama's legions of supporters will be, "What about context?"  But unfortunately, the reality is that the American people don't care or have time for context.  We knew so little about Obama from the start that a controversy like this has an easier time settling and expanding.

Electability is no longer on Obama's side and that is why the super delegates will be forced to make the final call to give the nomination to Hillary Clinton.  Sure there will be disappointment among Obama's remaining supporters.  But the Democratic Party wants to win this election and it will nominate its best candidate.  Another way of looking at the potential outcry of disenfranchisement is to ask this question:

If American's had this information on January 3, would they have voted for Barack Obama?

I believe the answer to that question is "no."