2008 Presidential Election

First of all, I know we are a long way out from November of 2008. Secondly, I know that there is a slew of dirt yet to be unleashed on those vying for the party nominations let alone the top office in the land. Third, we know a ton of the dirt already so why not have a little fun here and try to figure out at this early stage of the game (and it is a game) to see if we can collectively pick who will have the nominations using good ole’ fashion horse sense.

Let’s start with the scientific method used by many in the media, the Las Vegas odds makers. Here’s the latest I have found…

There are others running but let’s face it, they are the longest of shots at this point. Even Ron Paul isn’t going to be able to suddenly run forward of the group without most of the others going down in a plane together. So let’s whittle the field down to just those with a legitimate chance of making it.

Clinton, Obama and Edwards for the Democrats and Giuliani, Romney and Thompson for the Republicans, keeping in mind that the implosion of McCain is ongoing and he should opt out of the race between now and Christmas ’07, maybe holding on until late January of ’08.

Then let’s look at the “might run’s” like Gore, and Gingrich. Neither man has the ability to steal the spotlight form the front runners at this point. Both have name recognition and both are liked by the faithful within the parties. Why can’t they make major waves?

Gore has become the world ambassador to mother Earth with his Global Warming mantra and Gingrich is thought to have left the reservation just a few to many times of late. Besides Fred Thompson has taken whatever thunder Newt might have had by playing the role of the true conservative at least in the minds of the party faithful, and Gore has now found that the money from speaking engagements as the former Vice President are quite lucrative. Not to mention that he is now the public face of the environmental movement.

Then let’s see if there are any spoilers out there in the non party affiliation roles. You know, the next Perot or Nader. Outside of Nader there isn’t anyone who could really upset the apple cart for the parties unless Ron Paul and a yet to be named Democratic nominee were to join forces as a new alternative to the Big Boys of politics. Winning wouldn’t be their goal, just drawing off enough votes to cause havoc with the system and to further legitimize their personal pet agendas. But his is a long shot at best too because who would join with Paul to try this, Edwards? Not a chance.

So we are back to the core 6. The biggest fight will be between Giuliani and the other two who actually have the money to launch a real endgame blitz. Thompson will have some Hollywood dough and his grass roots efforts will certainly siphon from McCain, Huckabee and the few smaller candidates who are still punching the dark looking for contact with the big money. So he will have the money to go the distance until the convention (this is my opinion) but the question is, will it be enough to stand up to Giuliani for the long terms or will he enter the convention tapped.

Romney on the other hand is awash with cash. But his message is all over the place. He lacks the core that most Republicans want to hear. As does Giuliani who is on the other side of most issues that matter to the grass roots Republican. Abortion, Gay marriage and Social Programs and guns, while these may be of little interest to may outside the party, it does matter when one is stuck with the choice of the lesser of two evils. Thompson is quiet and reserved on those issues, making it clear that he is a party loyalist (which can scare a conservative who believes in the message first, the messenger second) yet not placing the spotlight on those issues as controversial. In other words, we know already what Thompson would place on the Supreme Court; we do not know what Giuliani would install to a lifetime appointment. This goes on as Hillary and Obama fight over mundane crap like who is Blacker, who will offer a quicker way out of Iraq and who cares more for our reputation over seas and how exactly do we accomplish this resurrection of America as the Good Guys. Who is willing to touch Social Security and in what way. 

The Left fights the same old fight: It's worked in the past.

Hillary has already tried to re-invent our modern healthcare service once. Obama has said it needs to be reworked, but it is Edwards who has recently made it a cornerstone of the sound bite debate in the media. Hillary has focused much of her rhetoric on strengthening the Middle Class while Obama focuses primarily on ending Iraq and enforcing our image overseas. Although Obama is the only one of the three who has Security of America in his list of major issues, it is down the list behind those things such as Healthcare and the poverty. Neither Hillary of Edwards mentions it on their site at all, at least on the home page drop down menus.

But Hillary has a not so secret weapon at her disposal and is using it to her advantage, a former President who is beloved by her party faithful. Neither Obama nor Edwards can tap such a major player from their party as the only other living Democrat President, Jimmy Carter is remembered more for his lack luster performance during the hardest time in America since the Great Depression than his perhaps visionary view of our need to free ourselves from foreign oil. Bill Clinton also offers her something else the others do not offer, the pillow talk advisory position to the possible next President of the United States. All the personal experience of a two term President on the pillow next to you (or down the hall depending on if you listen to the gossip) is something you simply can not offer sufficient countermeasures against if you are running against her in a primary.

So in this dog fight for the nomination I predict a Hillary win unless the law suit from California alleging campaign finance fraud to which she is as of right now not even a party to, or the other past adventures from FBI filegate or Whitewater or Vince Fosters death somehow resurrect to cause her problems.

The GOP fight, more personality than real substance:

Rudi, Mitt and Fred, all three have the money to win the nomination but only one in this crowd at the moment has the built in party support to win and it’s not the first two mentioned in my opinion (and that’s what this is, my opinion). As John Dickerson reported in Slate magazine, he is vague but the people feel that he says what he believes. By people I of course mean the GOP grassroots faithful who have for years looked for an might well believe now that they are getting the second coming of Reagan, at least on the outside. The inside has yet to be fully tried by fire.

Personality and local issues always drives these things, as was once said, “All politics is local”. And to a certain extent it is certainly true. Romney and Giuliani are both liked by State and City they both ran respectively and are in positions to claim some limited executive experience which Thompson most like can and will counter with the years he spent in the heart of the beast, in Washington, perhaps dealing with bigger issue than labor strikes and zoning law.  More importantly to the debate, people like to hear answers to a question that make them feel that the politician they are talking to understands them. Giuliani and Romney might first preface an answer with words like, “In consideration of the question you have asked…” or some other CYA attempt to answer or dissect a direct questions, a Fred Thompson may simply reply, “Is a 40 pound rat fat?” It is this gentle yet obviously comfortable in his own skin directness that I believe is far more conducive to a feeling of equality with a candidate, a like-a-ability factor that Romney and Giuliani just don’t have and is a hard thing to fake.  Like they say, in sales (and make no mistake, a political election is the end all of sales technique) sincerity is the hardest thing to accomplish, once you can fake that, the rest is easy.

If neither one of them come to the table with a solid understanding of conservative values, something Giuliani simply can’t state right now unless he were to waffle on his own core beliefs, or transform into one of the common people to some extent, something which Romney does not appear to have the chameleon like flexibility to accomplish, then I would have to give the GOP nomination to Fred Thompson, despite that fact that he is currently running third to the other two.

Let’s face a truth here folks. Not one of these clowns from either side has what we wish they did for experience. And despite the fact that the last four out of five Presidents have been former Governors, Romney and Huckabee aren’t going to win their parties nominations. We are going to more than likely have a former senator as our next President as Clinton, Obama, Thompson, Edwards and McCain have all served in that role. As for Giuliani, yes operating a city that is more populated than many states, and is a player on the world stage is nice, but at the end of the day he was a mayor, not a governor of Senator and that would be a big leap for anyone to make, especially someone who lacks their parties’ core beliefs.

So my prediction at this stage of the game based on the latest finger in the air poll combined with my lack luster ability to see the future divided by the square root of the ineffective media to actually get information out of the candidates and into the hands and hearts of the voting public is picking the 2008 Presidential election to come down to Hillary Clinton vs. Fred Thompson.

But what would I know; I’m just an Average American.